Monday, May 18, 2009

What the results of General Elections 2009 portend?

Though, as a BJP supporter, I took the election results with a tinge of disappointment this time, I was not at all shocked with the results in the same way as I was in 2004 when UPA pipped NDA at the hustings.  If one sees the party-wise seats tally & the vote share including gains & losses, I feel THE INDIAN VOTER IS CLEAR & MATURED.  The voters, in general, have voted for a stable government at the centre & have shown that they are willing to back the party which they perceive is capable of governing the nation without distractions of coalition politics.

According to me, following are the take-aways from the results of the General Elections 2009:

1.  By voting for Sonia Cong. to win 205 seats within an overall UPA tally of 260+ (almost near the half-way mark), people have clearly indicated that they want STABILITY.  By trouncing most of its UPA partners, voters have given the mandate to Sonia Cong. to rule the country without coalition troubles like last time.

2.  BJP need not feel dejected or take any knee-jerk reactions.  Though its own seats, along with that of its NDA coalition, have come down from last time, BJP can take heart from the message given by the electorate.  Since the Indian voter wants a stable, preferably a single party Govt. to rule, by voting for Sonia Cong., BJP should now strive to play a constructive role in the opposition, which will prove to the electorate that BJP is a responsible alterative to Sonia Cong., in case they want to change their preference in the next elections.  So, BJP should not indulge in opposing the Govt. just for the sake of opposition - like they did by opposing the Nuclear Deal.  If BJP feels the Govt. has taken a right policy decision which is good for the country, as a responsible opposition party, they should vote along with the Govt. for such issues.

3.  Sonia Cong. can take heart from the results that many of its policies and programmes have the support of the people but should be careful to not become complacent or over-exhuberant by inviting dictatorial tendencies.  I think, the presence of Dr. Manmohan Singh, as the Prime Minister, should help the party here as he has shown to be a level-headed individual & seems to have the full backing of Sonia too.

4.  I think, overall the Indian Democracy is getting matured.  From several decades of single party rules (1950s, 60s) to voting a party based on emotional issues (1984) to an era of coalitions (since 1989 till now), the Indian Democracy has come a long way.  The electorate is learning the ropes by trial & error.  Now, they are learning that voting for coalitions may not be the only answer to single party dominance.  I think going forward, Indian Democracy may begin to see the emergence of two party rule - at least at the national level.  What I mean here is, the Indian electorate will have two parties (Sonia Cong. vs BJP) to choose from than two coalitions (UPA vs NDA).  That will be better for the country as whichever party is voted to power will have a stable rule & people can judge them on their own merit.  In case they don't deliver the goods, there is an alternative of another national party for the people to choose from in the next election, which will make the party in power to behave responsibly & deliver good governance.

All in all, even if one is not a UPA or Sonia Cong. supporter, one need not despair with the outcome of this election.  Issues like Swiss bank money, corruption, etc., I am sure, can be & will be tackled in the long run.

Here is wishing Dr. Manmohan Singh all the best to give a clean & good government which fast tracks the stalled economic reforms & makes sure to strengthen India's security & anti-terrorism measures.


padukali said...

dear arun,

very clear view on the results. i appreciate your honesty of admitting the BJP liking and the generousity of wishing cong.

i would like you to write about few more things or thinking.

1. DMK unpredicted sucess in TN
2. ADMK moderate sucess
3. PMK total failure
4. chiranjeevi - and his future



Kameswara Rao said...

Hi Arun,

Me too was disappointed and I did not expect BJP to do so badly especially in Rajasthan / MP / Maha but you concluded with that our people has given the mandate for a stable govt less from troubles of coalition parties...its already started with MK had his wish list of Cab.Ministers for his Son / Daughter / and Maran.. and I will be happy if they taken Nitish Kumar into confidence rather than having this troublesome MK in the coalition... the victory which has come to DMK is just Money Power and the way they have done it.. they lived to the words that even when its come to corruption they do it in a very systematic way. Their ministers are already in news with the Spectrum Scam and not at all good reports about Balu in giving contracts.... and all.

I have my own doubts about our PM though he acts from the orders of 10 Janpath the back up for the Nuclear deal and the support he got from 10 Janpath was only after he threatened that he will step down and so on...

Already the NDTV and its allies have started it all because of RG and his youth charisma and the ripples they caused that he can be the PM down the lane two years...

We have some serious economic issues and we need to have marked out plans for surviving in this period of global economic turmoil (recession) for which our PM will have the answers the tough stands he need to take and the backing he need to have .... I doubt... Though Lalu has been out for his miscalculations he did a fantastic job as Railway Minister (though his contribution was not there he allowed the ministry to work on issues which were good for the nation and Indian Railways)

Let us see what we have in store with this strengthened Cong and Less troubles for Allies..

Warms Regards


RamKumar said...

good analysis, but i believe many of the upa wins are due to vote splitting and anti incumbency in some states. upa gained in tamilnadu due to vote splitting by vijayakanth, in ap by chiranjeeve and maharashtra by mns. also in kerala , bengal there was anti incumbency votes and since congress is the only alternative there people voted for congress there. As you told BJP should play the role of constructive opposition and at the same time should increase its rank and profile. It should get itself more organised and try to grow in southern states in the next 5 years. they should make themselves as a true national party rather than depending on allies here and there.


rdharma said...

very interesting thoughts there Arun. The voters also have punished the communists and that is a good sign as well. However the rich have become richer in TN.